Preseason Rankings
Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.8#52
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.6#222
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#71
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.8#36
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.1% 2.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 6.2% 6.3% 0.9%
Top 6 Seed 10.8% 10.9% 1.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.4% 41.6% 12.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 29.2% 29.4% 7.2%
Average Seed 8.5 8.5 10.4
.500 or above 94.4% 94.7% 71.4%
.500 or above in Conference 84.8% 85.0% 55.1%
Conference Champion 21.8% 22.0% 7.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.5% 4.6%
First Four4.6% 4.6% 0.9%
First Round39.1% 39.3% 12.3%
Second Round21.2% 21.4% 4.9%
Sweet Sixteen8.4% 8.4% 1.1%
Elite Eight3.4% 3.4% 0.9%
Final Four1.4% 1.5% 0.0%
Championship Game0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: SIU Edwardsville (Home) - 99.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 3
Quad 24 - 35 - 5
Quad 37 - 212 - 7
Quad 47 - 019 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 331   SIU Edwardsville W 83-58 99%    
  Nov 28, 2020 30   LSU W 77-76 52%    
  Dec 05, 2020 338   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 79-51 99%    
  Dec 08, 2020 285   Central Arkansas W 88-68 96%    
  Dec 12, 2020 261   Evansville W 78-59 95%    
  Dec 15, 2020 122   Indiana St. W 75-65 81%    
  Dec 20, 2020 37   @ Minnesota L 67-71 35%    
  Dec 23, 2020 275   UMKC W 76-57 96%    
  Dec 30, 2020 90   Duquesne W 74-67 72%    
  Jan 02, 2021 128   Massachusetts W 78-67 82%    
  Jan 06, 2021 157   @ La Salle W 74-67 72%    
  Jan 09, 2021 174   @ Saint Joseph's W 80-72 74%    
  Jan 14, 2021 81   Davidson W 71-65 69%    
  Jan 20, 2021 128   @ Massachusetts W 75-70 65%    
  Jan 23, 2021 85   St. Bonaventure W 72-66 71%    
  Jan 26, 2021 47   Dayton W 73-70 59%    
  Jan 29, 2021 53   @ Richmond L 71-74 40%    
  Feb 06, 2021 198   @ George Washington W 73-64 77%    
  Feb 10, 2021 93   Rhode Island W 77-70 72%    
  Feb 13, 2021 201   @ Fordham W 67-58 79%    
  Feb 16, 2021 157   La Salle W 77-64 85%    
  Feb 19, 2021 47   @ Dayton L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 23, 2021 99   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 70-68 55%    
  Feb 25, 2021 53   Richmond W 74-71 60%    
  Mar 01, 2021 123   George Mason W 74-64 80%    
Projected Record 18 - 7 12 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.2 5.9 6.6 4.8 1.8 21.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.3 6.4 5.1 1.7 0.2 17.3 2nd
3rd 0.5 3.1 5.8 3.8 0.9 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 5.2 3.3 0.7 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 4.3 2.9 0.5 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.0 3.0 0.5 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.4 2.2 2.5 0.5 0.0 5.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 2.1 0.7 0.0 4.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.7 0.8 0.1 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 1.0 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 4.2 6.0 8.1 10.7 12.4 13.4 13.1 11.9 8.4 5.0 1.8 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 1.8    1.8 0.0
16-2 95.6% 4.8    4.2 0.6
15-3 78.8% 6.6    4.4 1.9 0.3 0.0
14-4 49.7% 5.9    2.7 2.4 0.7 0.1
13-5 17.1% 2.2    0.5 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.7% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.8% 21.8 13.6 6.1 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 1.8% 100.0% 58.1% 41.9% 2.8 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 5.0% 98.8% 45.7% 53.1% 4.6 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.8%
15-3 8.4% 94.2% 36.1% 58.1% 6.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.5 90.9%
14-4 11.9% 81.0% 28.6% 52.4% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.5 0.7 0.1 2.3 73.4%
13-5 13.1% 60.3% 22.2% 38.0% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.7 2.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.2 48.9%
12-6 13.4% 36.8% 14.7% 22.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 8.5 25.9%
11-7 12.4% 20.5% 10.8% 9.7% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 9.8 10.9%
10-8 10.7% 10.5% 7.1% 3.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.6 3.6%
9-9 8.1% 4.9% 3.5% 1.4% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.7 1.4%
8-10 6.0% 2.3% 2.1% 0.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 0.2%
7-11 4.2% 1.3% 1.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1
6-12 2.4% 0.8% 0.8% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4
5-13 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.4
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 41.4% 17.2% 24.1% 8.5 0.8 1.3 1.7 2.4 2.0 2.6 3.1 3.4 4.8 5.8 6.8 5.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 58.6 29.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.8 46.2 38.4 9.2 6.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.3 42.4 28.3 2.0 10.1 16.2 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 2.6 19.0 32.1 23.4 25.5